All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes is on his way after the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays agreed to the latest notable trade before Major League Baseball’s July 30 trade deadline. This, by the way said, it will be a homecoming of sorts for Paredes, who originally signed with the Cubs as a professional before being traded to the Detroit Tigers. (He was then traded to the Rays a few years later, suggesting that he was used to the whole process.)
As is tradition here at CBS Sports, we’re bringing in the deadline by providing instant analysis on all the big deals. That includes issuing a letter for both groups. You can find that, and more, below. First, though, here’s the business in general:
Now, on to the good stuff.
Children’s group: B
This trade is interesting in a number of ways, starting with the fact that the Cubs — the team far from the playoffs — are getting the most powerful player in the league.
Paredes, 25, had a great two seasons with the Rays. He hit .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) with 67 home runs over 354 games. For reference, only three regulars with a higher OPS+ over that span are were Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado. Good company? No. A great company. Add in the fact that Paredes is under team control through the 2027 season, and it looks like the Cubs just got one of the best third basemen in the game throughout their stat line.
It’s not that easy, though, because Paredes is a surprise. His exit velocity average is in the 4th percentile and he doesn’t fare much better in other ball-tracking metrics — not exactly what you’d expect from a should-have guy. 20-plus homers a year. He has a good feel for space and contact, but the key to his success is his ability to catch the ball in the air. According to Robert Orr’s database, no player in the majors draws more balls than Paredes. On the other hand, he was able to take full advantage of the cut and size of left field at Tropicana Field. How will Paredes fare at Wrigley Field? Statcast’s projections, as important as they are, show that he will have five fewer games this season and 12 fewer games for his career.
There are other questions to ask about Paredes’ game — like, how will this position age when he starts to feel the effects of aging? We don’t have the answers to them, and we suspect the Cubs and the Rays don’t either. However, we get this agreement from both sides. The Cubs couldn’t make a third baseman out of Morel, but Paredes would be a good fit at the hot corner. Additionally, Paredes is only four months older than Morel, yet he is performing very well as a major league pitcher. Does Morel have more things on his plate? Maybe. Does Paredes seem to have the potential to provide a valuable foundation between his offense (no matter how it looks in Chicago) and defense? Yes.
You can also make fun of the Cubs, a team that has been talking about selling, making what appears to be current success. We don’t think it’s the best business plan because Paredes is not a rental. Nothing would have changed if both sides had waited until November to be done. We’re not sure a 3-for-1 deal would be a “challenging trade” — the Cubs participated with two interesting hands here — but this one comes close. Look at it with that framework in mind, and you can understand why these teams did what they did here.
Radiation level: B
Since the beginning of July, the Rays have traded Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and now Paredes. You know, this kind of trade coming from a team that won 99 games last season and entered Sunday in a worse game than the 1997 Chicago White Sox when they made the infamous “White Flag Trade.” It is clear that the power of St. Petersburg saw Ron Schueler as a brave striker who didn’t get his due. Or,rdest, maybe, they tried too hard to sell to satisfy the desires of the owner who was sad about the salary during the season, when this team promoted serious ambitions of the competition. We have absolutely no way of knowing which of these circumstances may be the case.
On the bright side, this business has potential Rays to get rich two straight major leaguers and only one loss. Does that technically make them a customer? Either way, we can see a real argument for picking Tampa Bay’s side of things — especially if one is a Paredes skeptic and/or a True Believer in Morel and company. .
Morel, 25, has been linked to the Rays since at least last winter. More than half a year later, his overall profile remains the same: promising bat, unpromising gloves. Don’t let this season’s disappointing results fool you; There has been real growth in Morel’s offensive game, as he has improved his pursuit and contact. He’s still able to put the charge inside the ball, too, and his 90 percent exit rate ranks him with the likes of Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson. Morel says we’re a good bet for a top hitter for at least the next few years.
There are two flaws in Morel’s game. First of all, he has no safe haven. The girls played him everywhere and he was not liked everywhere. The Rays might want to move him to second base (or left field, or DH) and say, “that’s it, he’s going to hit and we won’t think about defensive damage.” The other catch is that Morel is still making enough money, and that, along with the lack of secondary value, will give him stability as he approaches his 30th birthday. Well, let’s be serious: Morel won’t be part of the Rays then.
Bigge, 26, has appeared in four major league games this season with the Cubs. Judging by the way the Rays have been chipping away at their bullpen, it seems almost certain that he will move on – maybe immediately. His arsenal includes a high 90s fastball, a devastating slider that has produced 58% whiffs this season, and several other pitches. If Bigge throws shots at a more frequent rate, you might think the Rays are trying him as a starter. Instead, Birge and his short-handed stroke — think Pete Fairbanks’ style — are likely to remain in relief, and perhaps sooner rather than later.
Johnson, 22, is a 6-foot-6 righty who the Cubs drafted out of Ball State in the 15th round last summer. He’s the latest in a string of second- and/or third-day picks from 2023 who struggled with their command in college and were traded after showing improved command for the season. long. (Fellow Rays acquisition Brody Hopkins and new Angels prospect George Klassen also fit in that mold.) There are the makings of a good fastball-slider combination here, and it will be up to the Rays’ player development staff to fix it.
#Isaac #Paredes #trade #grades #Cubs #pitching #Rays #guy #Christopher #Morel